implement basic functionality
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from typing import Dict, Optional, Tuple
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import numpy as np
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# import numpy.typing as npt
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import numpy.random as npr
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from scipy.stats import f_oneway
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class ClocktowerManager:
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__slots__ = ['bounds', 'data', 'rng', 'significance', 'best_guess', 'min_correct_tries']
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bounds: Tuple[int, int]
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data: Dict[int, np.ndarray]
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rng: npr.Generator
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significance: float
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min_correct_tries: int
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best_guess: Optional[int]
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def __init__(self, bounds: Tuple[int, int] = (0, 256),
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significance: float = 0.01,
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min_correct_tries: int = 5,
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rng: Optional[npr.Generator] = None) -> None:
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self.bounds = bounds
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self.data = {k: np.array([], dtype=np.float64) for k in range(bounds[0], bounds[1])}
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self.significance = significance
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if rng is None:
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rng = npr.default_rng()
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self.rng = rng
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self.min_correct_tries = min_correct_tries
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self.best_guess = None
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def next_guess(self) -> Optional[int]:
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if (self.best_guess is not None and
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len(self.data[self.best_guess]) >= self.min_correct_tries):
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return None
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min_count = min([len(x) for x in self.data.values()])
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if min_count < 3 or self.rng.uniform(0, 1) > 0.5:
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min_keys = [k for k in self.data.keys() if len(self.data[k]) == min_count]
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return self.rng.choice(min_keys)
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elif self.best_guess is not None:
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return self.best_guess
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else:
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means = {k: v.mean() for k, v in self.data.items()}
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return max(means.items(), key=lambda x: x[1])[0]
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def update(self, guess: int, value: float) -> None:
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if guess not in self.data.keys():
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return
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self.data[guess] = np.append(self.data[guess], np.array([value], dtype=np.float64))
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inputs = [x for x in self.data.values() if len(x) > 0]
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if len(inputs) < 2:
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return
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if max([len(v) for v in inputs]) < 2:
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return
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res = f_oneway(*inputs)
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print("results", res)
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if res.pvalue <= self.significance:
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print("significant!")
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self.best_guess = max(self.data.items(), key=lambda v: v[1].mean())[0]
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else:
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self.best_guess = None
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def get_best_guess(self) -> int:
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if self.best_guess is None:
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raise Exception("guess not available")
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return self.best_guess
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def main() -> None:
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pass
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gen = npr.default_rng()
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stdev = 7059
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u0 = 500000
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u1 = 506046
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# stdev = 1000
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# u0 = 500000
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# u1 = 506046
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correct_guess = 0x42
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def sample(guess):
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return gen.normal(u1 if guess == correct_guess else u0, stdev)
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mgr = ClocktowerManager()
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num_guesses = 0
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while True:
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num_guesses += 1
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guess = mgr.next_guess()
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if guess is None:
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print("answer", hex(mgr.get_best_guess()))
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break
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print("guessing", hex(guess), "(guess", num_guesses, ")")
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value = sample(guess)
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mgr.update(guess, value)
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if len(mgr.data[correct_guess]) > 0:
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print("means", mgr.data[correct_guess].mean(),
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np.hstack([v for k, v in mgr.data.items() if k != correct_guess]).mean())
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print("took", num_guesses, "guesses")
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